Cea’s india growth projection too pessimistic, says panagariya – moneycontrol. com

While the Chief Economic Advisor forsees India’s growth rate to be in the 6.75 to 7.5 percent range in the next fiscal, NITI Aayog’s Vice Chairman Arvind Panagariya is more optimistic.

In an exclusive conversation with CNBC-TV18, Arvind Panagariya says that with remonetisation substantially accomplished, FY18 growth targets should not be a problem.

Talking about the government’s fiscal roadmap, Panagariya said though the government should stick to its fiscal consolidation plan, a minor deviation from the roadmap is acceptable.

He says the turnaround period at ports in India has to be much faster. What is irrigation water Also, there needs to be more work done in correcting balance between capital and revenue expenditure.

He also says that it may be too early for PARA (Public Sector Asset Rehabilitation Agency) to form a part of the Budget 2017. Wooden gate designs pictures But he anticipates an open-ended announcement around PARA.

Q: A lot of the ideas that you have talked about, in some form or fashion are reflected here in the Economic Survey, whether it is the focus on sectors like apparel, leather, etc, its the need for a bad bank. Lattice method for multiplication A lot of those ideas have been talked about by the Chief Economic Advisor (CEA), but I want to start by talking to you about growth. Softball names This is perhaps the first clear indication officially from the government in terms of the impact of demonetisation and the projection of growth going forward. Wild pitch records It says the cash squeeze will have a significant implication for gross domestic product (GDP) reducing 2016-2017 growth by between 0.25 and 0.5 percentage points compared to the baseline of 7 percent. Slow pitch softball batting cages Recorded GDP will understate the impact on the informal sector and that is largely because they are not captured by index of industrial production (IIP), so on and so forth. Hardscape For 2017-2018 you could see it as a wide range of 6.75-7.5 percent. Definition of pitch Do you believe that we could attempt the higher end of that range or perhaps given the domestic as well as the global uncertainties, the lower end of the range?

A: By nature, I am an optimist, so I would lean on the higher side of it. Elevator pitch definition So, if you feel that this range is too wide, personally, I would narrow it down to 7-7.5 percent and maybe on the higher side of it with higher probability.

Q: But, specifically, when we talk about the impact of demonetisation and the CEA has actually put down a table in terms of the impact of demonetisation and the subsequent recovery. Fastest pitch in baseball Now, he suggests that A] faster remonetisation will be the key to aiding a recovery as far as the economy is concerned. Fantasy sports websites But he also suggests several other things. Garden state parkway rest stops For instance, reducing tax rates, stamp duties, an improved tax system and also promoting greater income declaration, dispelling fears of an overzealous tax administration. New york yankees spring training 2016 How much of that can we realistically now expect the government to take forward by way of the Budget, at least as far as rationalising taxes and cutting tax rates itself is concerned?

A: This is something we will find out tomorrow, how far we go. Garden design free software But just to address the growth issue, remember that we were actually already growing between 7 and 8 percent, 7.6 percent we had grown. Baseball games today scores And now, remonetisation is substantially accomplished. Gravel driveway cost per square metre So, going forward for 2017-2018, if one is to interpret what you have just read out to mean that somehow without these steps we will not get to 7.5 percent, I personally think that is too pessimistic. Fantasy basketball keeper rankings It is not a statement that we should do the things that you have read out, these are all eminently sensible things to do which we should do. How to pitch But I just want to clarify that the 7.5 percent growth is not contingent.

Q: We have got the FRBM panel which has submitted its recommendations, the report is not public. Ncaa college baseball scores What the CEA says in the economic survey is that good fiscal performance by states should be incentivised to keep the overall fiscal performance on track and the centre should take the lead in sound fiscal management. Uga softball roster Now given the context of what we are talking about the need for stimulus and so on and so forth, should the government perhaps take the liberty of finding itself some wriggle room from that 3 percent fiscal deficit target?

A: The way I would put it is that the credibility that we have acquired has been very hard fought. Auburn softball complex This government at a time when it was very difficult to actually continuously bring down deficit given the original inheritance has done a remarkable job of coming down to 3.5 percent already.

A: Largely. Lattice energy of kcl If you deviate by 0.1-0.2 percent heavens are not going to fall on that. Absolute pitch However if you go from 3.5 percent to 6 or 7 percent then that is a very bad signal.

A: If we can do 3.2 percent or so that will be good. Mutual materials If we do 3 percent then that is very good. Garden of the gods rv resort Largely in spirit if not necessarily in letter we ought to stay with the consolidation path. Diy trellis It has been a hard fought battle and nothing too much has changed, demonetisation certainly is a factor based on which you could argue that we need to give some stimulus but on the whole I think we are coming out of it is my sense of where the numbers are now.

Q: The sense that we are also getting at this point and this is the buzz that we pick up from government sources is that this is likely to be a pro poor Budget. Masonry supply near me What should that mean? Would you agree? Larger focus on irrigation, the rural economy, the agriculture sector, that is given but how should we interpret pro poor Budget and what that could imply?

A: This is a path we have travelled before. Tactile paving If you look at last year’s Budget for instance, that was pro poor and it was pro farmer. Fantasy baseball keeper rankings In very similar spirit I would expect this Budget also to be pro poor, pro farmer and all the good things that you mentioned including proper allocations for NAREGA, proper allocations for PDS and farmer related expenses.

Q: If you are talking about farmer related expenses, if I were to take out a page from the manifestos, for instance even the BJP has put out, the UP manifesto where it talks about farm loan waivers, do you think that that is an idea that the government should at all attempt to take forward or perhaps subvention for rural credit is the better way forward?

A: Between those two options I would go for subvention rather than loan forgiveness but that is a political call also to some degree. Outdoor That is not what I had in mind when I said pro farmer, what I had in mind was investment in irrigation and investment in other safety nets, obviously the farm insurance that the government has introduced. High pitch eric dead Likewise access to credit, access to fertiliser, access to water, all sorts of inputs basically, those are the kinds of things I had in mind.

Q: Since we are talking about loan forgiveness I also want to talk to you about something what you spoke with me when we last had a conversation and that was the idea that you said you wanted the government to take note of which was the idea of a bad bank. Landscape pictures free It has appeared in the economic survey in perhaps a different avatar where the survey suggests setting up of a centralised public sector asset rehabilitation agency. Patchwork The agency will look after the largest most difficult cases and make politically tough decisions to reduce debt. Usssa softball iowa So, in a sense will this mirror what you were recommending in terms of a bad bank? There is an acknowledgement today from the survey as well as from the CEA that so far the steps that have been taken to reduce NPAs haven’t worked, we now need out of the box ideas.

A: As time passes the need for action similar to what the economic survey recommends begins to take greater importance. Alabama softball Recapitalisation helps to some degree but this will go far enough and in terms of actual NPAs today, significantly largest NPA is public sector banks – 12 percent of gross advances for public sector banks at the end of September 2016.

So, there is realisation within the government that something needs to be done. Baseball online streaming Whether it will be an ARC along the lines that the economic survey argues or it will take some different form is still subject to discussion and study. Garden of eden location This is a complicated area technically as well as to execute it efficiency.

A: It is too early in the discussions. Baseball pitches I don’t think the roadmap of exactly what to do is clear on this still. Little league pitch count Even in my mind there are alternative ways to do it and how you do it, I don’t think it is so clear. How to design a garden Therefore on the one hand if the Budget makes some sort of announcement I would be quite happy with it. Slow pitch softball swing It may be an open ended kind of announcement that the government is going to take a look at this and alternative instrumentalities would be looked into, something of that sort can be said but I don’t really think you will get that kind of an announcement in the Budget.