East africa_ what president trump’s policies mean for somalia and security in greater east africa – allafrica. com

Over the past three years, President Obama’s support for the 22,000-strong Africa Union Mission to Somalia, Amisom, has been crucial in the fight against Al Shabaab, the Al Qaeda-affiliates trying to oust the Federal Government of Somalia. Orbit irrigation products inc By providing intelligence, deploying Special Forces, airstrikes and drones, the US has degraded Al Shabaab’s fighting capabilities and decapitated its leadership.

In May last year, a US airstrike killed Abdullahi Haji Da’ud, a key military commander. Wadding definition He was one of many Al Shabaab leaders taken out by US drones and Special Forces in early 2016 among them Mohamed Dulyadin, architect of the 2015 Garissa University shootings; Yusuf Ali Ugas, an Al Shabaab recruiter; Mohamed Mire, the Al Shabaab governor for the Hiran region and Hassan Ali Dhoore, architect of both the 2014 Christmas Day attack on Mogadishu airport and the 2015 attack on Maka al-Mukarramah hotel, also in Mogadishu.

If Al Shabbab seems less fleet-footed and lethal today than it did a year and a half ago, part of the credit must go to the US. Fire sprinkler system design software free download It now looks like President Trump — who is breathtakingly naïve about the threat that Al Shabaab-like groups pose — wants the review in order to cut back US involvement in Somalia. Funny slow pitch softball team names This would be a strategic and costly long-run mistake for US policy in the Horn of Africa.

It also means that Kenya and Ethiopia, both allies of the US against Al Shabaab, could also soon bail out of Somalia. Small garden design pictures gallery Should they do so, Al Shabaab will flourish, at least in the short-run. Softball world series 2015 The silver lining, though, is that in the medium-term, the retreat by the US, Ethiopia and Kenya would give the Africa Union an excellent chance to redesign Amisom, its otherwise doomed mission in Somalia. Garden projects Here is why:

To begin with, it is baffling that President Trump cannot see the strategic argument. How to make curtains longer The Red Sea — and so the Suez Canal — is vital to global commerce, a route not only for oil from the Gulf states to Europe but also for goods from Europe and North America to India, the Arabian Peninsula and China. Reliable fence The Red Sea shortcut — which carries about 8 per cent of global trade — eliminates 10 days and 8,900 kilometres (or 43 per cent) from the alternative route round the Cape of Good Hope. Wyevale ontario True, some oil tankers are now taking the long route but that is temporary, explained by low oil prices that offset the higher transport costs.

On all accounts, then, the Suez Canal route will remain critical. Espn fantasy football app draft But it is vulnerable. How to build a deck step by step The entry to the Red Sea, past the point where the Horn of Africa juts into the Gulf of Aden, is a 32km wide maritime chokepoint, the Bab-el-Mandeb, Arabic for the “Gate of Tears.” Looking north towards Suez, the strait lies athwart the Red Sea with Djibouti to the east, on the African coast and Yemen to the west, on the Arabian coast. Softball pitching drills Behind, the Red Sea funnels out to the Indian Ocean and on to the coast of Somalia. River rock landscaping ideas The strategic threat of a failed Somalia is obvious and has been for years.

One, there is an incipient rebellion in Oromia, Ethiopia’s largest, most populous and richest region. College softball games This will force the security-obsessed ruling party in Addis Ababa to re-deploy its armed forces. Basketball teams near me Late last year, Ethiopian troops withdrew from parts of central Somalia unannounced, in response, some say, to the Oromo rebellion back home. Garden design pictures The unexpected move proved a boon to Al Shabaab who quickly occupied the towns that Ethiopia abandoned.

Consular ties between the US and Ethiopia were established in 1903, paving the way for the first US ambassador to Ethiopia, Hoffman Philip, to present papers to Emperor Menelik II in 1908. Garden of eden song Today, Ethiopia is one of the largest recipients of US economic and military aid. Football field width One justification for this US investment has been Ethiopia’s frontline role in the fight against terrorism, especially its willingness to commit soldiers against the Islamic Courts Union in early 2000 and mid-2006. Fantasy baseball mock draft Without an active US interest in Somalia, aid to Ethiopia will surely fall, if not immediately then in the medium-term.

But there are deeper factors at play too. Fastpitch softball tournaments Ethiopia’s historical relations with Somalia are fractious and incandescent and can inflame Somali nationalism like no other factors. Sprinkler irrigation By some accounts, ties go back to time of the Prophet Mohammad. Basketball wives season 5 episode 7 Emollient renderings of Ethiopian history say that the Aksumite Kingdom, the historical heartland of modern Ethiopia, gave refuge to relatives and family of the Prophet fleeing from persecution by the rulers of Mecca, the Quraishi family, ironically members of the same Banu Hashim clan as the Prophet. Drippers vs tanks A grateful Mohammad is supposed to have decreed that the Abyssinian Christians were never to be harmed. Pinch hitter 2 But his injunction was ignored: Muslims from Somalia — and later Sudan and Egypt — regularly raided Abyssinia, at one point occupying most of the Aksumite highlands and nearly vanquishing the kingdom. Fantasy basketball yahoo Ethiopia’s fight-back began in the late 19th century when King Menelik II invaded the Ogaden and, with the connivance of the British, occupied the region for a short time. Garden of eden Fifty years later, in 1948, the British handed Ogaden back to Ethiopia, claiming to rely on an agreement with Menelik II from 1897.

But Ogaden remained contested. Sales pitch email From 1977 to 1978 the long cold war over the region turned hot, culminating in the defeat of Somalia, thanks to the Soviet Union’s turncoat diplomacy which saw them switch sides mid-stream, dumping their erstwhile ally Siad Barre of Somalia for Mengistu Haile Mariam of Ethiopia. Basketball rio 2016 Later still, in 1996 and then in 1999, Ethiopian forces made incursions into Somalia.

In July 2006, Ethiopia launched a full invasion, cherry-picked friendly warlords and, with the support of the US, arm-twisted them to set up the Transitional Federal Government, all against the vociferous opposition of the Islamic Courts Union, and many Somali nationalists. Baseball teams Ethiopia’s subsequent occupation was brutal: hundreds of thousands were displaced, civilians were killed and others brutalised.

Frequent Ethiopian spoliations were eventually repaid in the same coin: A radical and breakaway youth faction of the Islamic Court Union soon morphed into Al Shabaab, a bigger menace than the comparatively moderate ICU that the US and Ethiopia had battled so ruthlessly. Football games for pc Ethiopian forces eventually withdrew in 2009, 4,300 of them came back in 2014 as part of Amisom. Paris france flag pictures This charged matters profoundly. Front yard landscaping with rocks All considered, it would be best if Ethiopia withdrew from Somalia and stayed away for good.

What of Kenya? A US and Ethiopian withdrawal would weaken the Federal Government of Somalia — the 2012 successor to the Transitional Federal Government. How to lay patio stones But a weaker Somali government would, ironically, tighten Kenya’s grip on Somali affairs even as it deepens Somali distrust of Kenya. Ncaa basketball final four 2015 Left the top dog by the exit of its allies, Kenya would be tempted to play the advantages of dominance. Drip drop safura That would be a mistake; it would only add fuel to the mouldering resentments that Al Shabaab appeals to every time it attacks Kenya. How to install chain link fence on uneven ground Bluster and bullying would imperil Kenya’s security without removing the sources of threat. Landscaping costs Kenya invaded “to stabilise Somalia so that state-building could start.” Instead, by relying on imprudent and self-serving advice from politically connected Somalis, it exported Somali clan politics to Jubaland.

Some security experts now argue for Kenya’s extended stay in Somalia pointing out that since 2015, Al Shabaab, attacks on Kenyan soil have dropped sharply. What is pitch diameter This, they say, is proof that military intervention has paid off. Landscaping tips for beginners Not so fast: it is just a year after the deadly El Adde attack.

A more convincing explanation is better intelligence gathering, thanks to the new Director-General of Kenya’s National Intelligence Service, Maj-Gen Philip Kameru. Fantasy football rankings 2015 Kameru’s quiet and methodical style — a sharp contrast to the style of Maj-Gen Michael Gichangi, his predecessor — appears to be paying off. Basketball games online unblocked He has restored professionalism. Atkinsons fencing It is important that Kenya does not become complacent because terror groups are often most lethal when they seem weakest. Baseball america More important, the military’s triumphalist account of its mission doesn’t match with events in Somalia. Eephus pitch Since September 2016, Al Shabaab has stepped up attacks, in part to disrupt presidential elections in Somalia. Fantasy baseball mock draft results Premature announcements that it is dead are ill-informed.

If, in fact, Ethiopia and the US do pull out, Al Shabaab will, in the shortrun, grow strong again. Sprinkler world lehi That is a strategic menace to Kenya: an Al Shabaab re-energised may be tempted to attack Kenya this year, an election year, which would make credible elections impossible.

What to do? Kenya has no good options in Somalia. How to lay a patio It really is the “Devil’s Alternative.” Kenya could stay on, engaged in an inept military mission that continues to inflame Somali nationalism and stoke Al Shabaab resentment. Landscape planning app Or, it could withdraw and fret sleeplessly that Somalia will collapse back into the lawlessness that bred terror in the first place. Senior softball tournaments Kenya’s ability to do good in Somalia has been eroded by partisan politicking in Jubaland. France national flag images It is now reaping the very things it dreaded: A border as porous as before and a Somalia no safer than before. Watch baseball games online free It is time for Kenya to leave.

That leaves matters to the pussyfooted AU, which must urgently rethink Amisom’s design. Cultural landscape human geography Amisom is congenitally defective. Home garden design plan Five countries have contributed troops — Ethiopia, Djibouti, Kenya, Burundi and Uganda. Fastpitch softball tournaments 2016 Three of these — Ethiopia, Djibouti and Kenya — have territorial interests at odds with those of Somalia. Youth football teams near me Ethiopia has shown imperial tendencies in its interventions in Somalia and it also holds Ogaden. Sprinkler supply Djibouti was annexed by the French from Puntland and was then granted Independence totally delinked from Somalia. Outdoor voices Kenya’s (now former) Northeastern Province was part of Jubaland and was hived off by Britain in 1925. Fantasy football sleepers 2015 In 1960, Britain lied that the province would be re-unified with Somaliland but promptly handed it over to Kenya even though an overwhelming majority of the population there wanted to secede to Somalia. Elevator pitch generator So three of the troop contributing countries — Ethiopia, Kenya and Djibouti — sit on land that Somali nationalists make claims to. College softball Since 2015, a fourth country, Burundi, has routinely suppressed its own people and brazenly cocks a snook at both the AU and the East African Community, daring either or both to take action against it if they will. Green landscaping It has no legitimacy to intervene in Somalia. University of alabama softball camp It is a moral blot on the continent’s leaders that Burundi has been threatening to withdraw its troops from Mogadishu, because the European Union has imposed sanctions on its government, cutting off pay to its soldiers.

The solution to this mess has long been clear: Amisom needs a credible intervention force with a clear mission, tight timetable and definite milestones: To stabilise Somalia by taking control of key infrastructure, improve policing to provide civilian rather military security, rebuild the state to deliver basic services, create a framework for an inclusive national dialogue including rewriting the Constitution, hold elections to establish a legitimate government and, once done, leave Somalia to the Somalis.

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