St. louis cardinals_ contact quality against mike leake

Despite this, I think Mike Leake deserves more blame for his disappointing 2016 campaign. Youth baseball drills Previously, most attributed his high BABIP in 2016 to bad luck and bad defense. Football field diagram However, a deep look into batted ball data suggests Leake wasn’t unlucky; he just allowed batters to hit really well against him.

I previously dug into PITCHf/x and Statcast data and concluded Leake was basically unlucky. Uga softball A few months ago, Brendan expanded on this idea. Football schedule maker He pointed to Mike Leake’s peripheral stats as evidence that Leake had a better 2016 season than the results indicated. Football field cake Below, I compare Leake’s 2016 stats to his career totals:

Leake had a career best FIP of 3.83 in his first year with the St. Drip edge installation Louis Cardinals, as well as a career low walk rate. Facebook stock split date Basically, for the measures the pitcher can control, 2016 Mike Leake was the best version of Mike Leake thus far in his career. Backyard baseball players His ERA suffered thanks to an extremely high BABIP and low strand rate (LOB%).

Most, including myself, generally have attributed this to bad luck and bad defense, and ended the conversation there. Landscape design ideas for small backyards However, using data from the last five seasons, I’ve found that BABIP is negatively correlated with LOB%.

Unsurprisingly, a higher BABIP leads to a worse LOB%. Irrigation methods in india Using Leake’s 2016 BABIP against, we get an expected LOB% of 71.7%. Softball pitching While this is better than the 65.6% mark he posted, it’s still worse than his career average. Espn ncaa baseball scores Operating under the assumption that his struggles were mostly attributable to batted ball results, the next step is determining whether those poor results should actually be blamed on luck or Mike Leake.

Using data available via Baseball Savant, I binned every tracked batted ball in 2016 by exit velocity and launch angle. Basketball wives la cast I then used that to calculate an expected BABIP (xBABIP), an expected batting average on contact (xBACON), an expected home runs (xHR), and expected slugging (xSLG).

The overall pattern is similar to what others have found. Basketball positions and what they do Red areas are where batted balls are most likely to go for hits, and blue areas are where batted balls are least likely to be hits. Pitch dark chocolate The blue area at medium exit velocities and fly ball launch angles is the batted ball donut hole. Landscape products Essentially, these batted balls are generally lazy fly balls, while harder hit balls at those angles go for home runs and weaker hit balls at those angles fall in for bloop hits.

Assigning the 504 tracked batted balls against Leake to this matrix and others, I calculated the following expected stats and compared them with his actual batted ball stats.

Based on this analysis, it looks like Mike Leake performed about as expected, based on hitters’ exit velocities and launch angles against him. Garden of the gods If anything, Leake’s expected stats were slightly worse than his actual stats.

Equipped with this information, we can better assess exactly why Mike Leake struggled last year for the St. Paintball fields near me Louis Cardinals. Land scaping His average exit velocity against was essentially flat from 2015 to 2016. Asphalt 8 mod apk However, his average launch angle against increased from 6.5 degrees to 7.7 degrees. Funny softball pics While that jump doesn’t seem like much, it moves him closer to the BACON and BABIP launch angle peaks.

Leake was below average at generating batted balls in the lower BACON and BABIP exit velocity bins. Diy outdoor furniture He produced 7.8% fewer batted balls in the 70 to 95 MPH range than the league average. Little league baseball ages Additionally, he allowed 7.3% more batted balls in the 95+ MPH range, which have by far the highest BACON and BABIP.

Looking at binned launch angles reveals a similar problem. Garden centre london ontario While the difference is not as drastic, Leake gave up slightly more balls than average between -5 and 25 degrees, the angles most likely to be hits. Basketball wives la season 5 episode 4 Additionally, while Leake generated more ground balls than average, he was barely better than average at generating grounders that are least likely to go for hits, those less than -15 degrees.

Here, you can easily see the spikes between -5 and 25 degrees, as well as the spike in hits at approximately ten degrees. Sales pitch synonym He failed to generate many weak grounders below -20 degrees or pop ups above 50 degrees. Baseball teams in chicago The result: batted balls against Mike Leake were more likely to find the outfield grass for hits.

Unfortunately, his shingles case in August likely had little to do with his struggles. Landscape products bath pa Leake’s average exit velocity against by week was approximately average or worse long before shingles hit.

Another possible explanation is that the pitches which batters hit against Leake were better pitches to hit. Softball canada rules Using heat maps available at Baseball Savant, I compared his 2015 batted balls to 2016 batted balls, broken out vs. Baseball teams in ohio RHH and LHH.

There’s not much difference between 2015 and 2016 vs. Tropical garden design ideas RHH. Professional landscape architect I might argue that the concentration at the lowest part of the zone in 2016 was less than in 2015, but it would be difficult to quantify how much that small difference made. Lattice energy definition Against lefties, however, Leake left noticeably more pitches over the plate than he did in 2015.

Yet, by wOBA, Leake was only marginally worse in 2016 against lefties or righties than he has been over his career. Baseball games near me So while location may have been an issue, it was not what broke Leake’s season.

Additionally, it’s hard to pinpoint any reasons for Leake’s struggles looking through PITCHf/x data. Obama first pitch The movement on all his pitches last season was normal compared with his career. Pitching grips His release point was not significantly different, and his velocity remained steady. Little league football near me Furthermore, his spin rate on all his pitches was similar in 2016 and 2015.

The exit velocity and launch angle combinations of batted balls against Leake were the biggest drivers behind his lack of success. Facebook app not working Hitters simply squared Leake up more often, and he didn’t generate many batted balls in the donut hole. Sprinkler warehouse coupon code There were plenty of balls that, if hit a little harder or a little softer, would have fallen in the donut hole, and would have yielded better results for Leake.

Whether these contact results are attributable to Leake or batted ball luck is difficult to determine. Garden snakes eat There were a few differences between 2015 and 2016 in pitch location and launch angles that might be a cause for concern, and that should be monitored going forward. Baseball pitcher quotes Yet, the sample size is only one season. Landscape supply portland Even just a small difference in contact quality could mean improvement for Leake.